Regional Climate Change Projections for South Australia

  • Mrs Solange Cricelli, Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, Australia
  • Mr Peter Hayman, South Australia Research & Development Institute, Australia
  • Bronya Alexander, South Australia Research & Develoment Institute, Australia
  • Uday Nidumolu, South Australian Research & Development Institute, Australia
  • Mr David Finlay, Department of the Premier & Cabinet
  • Elliot Dwyer, Primary Industries & Resources SA, Australia
  • Mr Rohan Hamden, Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, Australia

Objective
One of the key challenges facing regional planners is deciding which climate projections should be used as the basis of setting policy. While information is available at regional scales it is rarely in a format that is easily accessible, or useable by planners.

The purpose of this project is to use data to provide regionally specific climate change projections to assist in regional planning.

Methods
The project commenced with an assessment of which global climate models most accurately project South Australian climate. From this analysis 13 models were chosen as a basis of determining regional projections.

These regional climate change projection reports (example products) included information such as:
• Bands of probability for temperature and rainfall projections in each region;
• Seasonal and annual projections for each region; and
• Emissions scenarios maps with 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles for low, medium and high emissions showing temperature, rainfall and evaporation change.

These example products were used to conduct a user needs analysis (extensive consultation) with NRM stakeholders (DWLBC, DEH, DPC, PIRSA, SARDI, staff and board members of SA NRM regions and EPA) to assess whether the format meets user needs.

Final reports will be completed for each region.

Results
This project has commenced and is due to be completed in May 2010.

Conclusions
These reports will provide NRM stakeholders with region specific snap shots of how climate change is projected to impact upon their region. This project eliminates the need for specific groups to fund their own research essentially producing the same information that is publically available, but not readily accessible. This project improves the efficient use of limited NRM funding and ensures consistent planning throughout NRM regions.