Dealing with Uncertainty in Cliamte Change Adaption Planning and Developing Triggers for Future Action
Complex or controversial actions associated with climate change adaptation are often delayed for future implementers to address in the undefined ‘long term’. However, if climate change adaptation is to be effective, there must be recognition as part of adaptation planning processes that these much more difficult decisions that affect tradeoffs will, at some point, need to be made – particularly as the impacts of climate change become more evident.
This presentation outlines a simple but effective planning tool that has been developed from combining climate change vulnerability assessment concepts with natural resource management approaches used in Australia. The tool operates along a time continuum and seeks to identify three stages for each climate change parameter or impact being assessed:
Stage 1: The baseline (current condition) of the climate change parameter/impact being examined at the time of adaptation plan preparation
Stage 2: The undesireable end-state of the climate change parameter being examined (eg. what are the impacts from climate change that are trying to be avoided); and
Stage 3 The identification of one or more trigger points along the time continuum that flags to the planning or responsible management agency that more applied or decisive adaptation actions need to occur prior to the undesireable impact occurring.
The innovation behind the planning tool is the ability to foreshadow or set a 'trigger' for future adaptation action that sets out a clear signal for future action while dealing with the uncertainty of future impacts.
The presentation will discuss some of the key thoughts behind tool and how it has been practically applied in various climate change planning projects throughout Australia undertaken by the authors.