Coastal zones are dynamic geomorphologic environments that respond to changes in ambient ocean and atmospheric processes over various spatial and temporal scales. Climate change and its potential impact on coastal zones are presenting numerous challenges for coastal planners and managers and is attracting considerable climate change related research.
Projected climate change however represents only a small change to a number of more significant dynamic forcing variables controlling the configuration of coastal zones. A properly informed, holistic assessment of the vulnerability of coastal zones to future coastal hazards can therefore only be undertaken by the dynamic analysis and integration of all the variables affecting coastal zones, not just static climate change related impacts.
In order to demonstrate this principal, a study undertaken to assess the vulnerability of settlements along the Ninety Mile Beach in East Gippsland to coastal hazards associated with climate change is presented.
The study combined a detailed review of the geomorphologic setting of the coastal landforms, their stratigraphy and evolution in response to previous high sea level rise episodes with the application of a number of numerical coastal modeling tools including a spectral wave model, a cross shore sediment transport model and a hydrodynamic model. These tools were developed to enable the dominant physical processes operating on the existing coastline to be integrated and applied to assist in quantifying the likely response of the coastal processes and landforms to projected 21st century climate change.
The findings from the study are considered to highlight the degree to which nuances associated the coastal dynamics, processes and geomorphology can significantly influence coastal hazard vulnerability and that the blanket application of climate change projections on coastal zones are likely to provide a poor basis from which to plan for future climate change related hazards in coastal zones.