BACKGROUND

The emerging evidence of climate change is convincing, as detailed in the consensus report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC recommends the precautionary principle is applied in a similar way to its application in environmental protection regulation.
Therefore, as engineers, we need to plan and design for predicted variability arising from climate change.

OBJECTIVES

This paper presents a risk based approach for assisting asset owners to understand how design can be adapted to climate change.

As coastal, catchment and waterway environments are likely to be the first impacted by climate change the application of a risk based adaptation process is of particular relevance to the water sector and this paper provides case studies for coastal and water engineering design.

METHODOLOGY

In existing design methodology, design criteria are selected based on historical trends and the probability of events.
With design parameters likely to experience ongoing variability as a result of climate change, the use of historical trends can no longer be assumed to represent the conditions expected over the life of an asset.

There are four phases of the adaptation process:
1. Determining Environmental Loadings
2. Risk Assessment
3. Adaptation Options
4. Options Assessment and Recommendations

Inputs and decision points within each phase allow the risk based approach to be applied to produce project and location specific outcomes. Examples of these factors are the design life, predicted climate change scenario, desired risk profile, and whole of life cost analyses of adaptation options.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed approach outlined provides a framework that can be adopted by building in climate change scenarios as they are further developed.

Applying the precautionary principle variability due to climate change must be incorporated into coastal and water engineering design. A risk based approach provides outcomes which are project and location specific.