Hydro Tasmania has recognised that long-term climate change is a major risk to its sustainability, and an issue that needs to be managed where possible. The main risk to the business from climate change is manifested in terms of possible impacts on yields to hydro reservoirs. Over the past ten years, Hydro Tasmania has initiated studies to obtain greater insight into climate change and potential impacts on its operations. More information on possible impacts of climate change enables Hydro Tasmania to develop appropriate management strategies.

A review of hydrological records showed a decline in yields. This lead to the initiation of a climate change assessment specifically for Tasmania, where the results could be incorporated into business processes. The initial assessment lead to the development of Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT), an in-depth study to provide fine-scale climate information over Tasmania for a range of credible greenhouse gas emission projections. The project is supported through funding and research from a consortium of state and national partners. The availability of fine-scale data from CFT allows Hydro Tasmania to assess the potential impacts of climate change on inflows to storages at a relatively small catchment scale.

The ongoing engagement with CFT introduced often hard-to-understand climate science concepts to Hydro Tasmania, allowing these concepts to become familiar over the length of the project. This strategy has led to a greater understanding, appreciation and response to climate change across the business.

The results of the modelling showed that there were some significant trends in runoff predicted over Hydro Tasmania’s catchments. These changes were used in conjunction with Hydro Tasmania’s hydrologic and system models to estimate the risks to the business arising from the impact of climate change on hydro-electricity generation and environmental values. Hydro Tasmania has modified operating strategies as a result of these investigations.