A framework for incorporating available climate science in extreme flood estimates

  • Keirnan Fowler, SKM, Australia
  • Dr Phillip Jordan, SKM, Australia
  • Peter Hill, SKM, Australia
  • Dr Rory Nathan, SKM, Australia
  • Kristen Sih, SKM, Australia

Although there are considerable uncertainties in the science of the climate change, there is a growing recognition of the importance of the issue. Incorporation of climate change impacts are now required in policy guidance from several government authorities and it is prudent risk management to include the effects of climate change in flood hydrology. This paper describes a framework for estimating the potential impact of climate change on extreme flood estimates in Australia. A case study on the catchment of a large dam in South-Eastern Australia to investigate the impact of three flood-producing factors according to the projected impact of climate change; namely, design rainfalls, modelled losses and initial storage contents for cases where an outflow from a dam is required. The relative influence of each of these factors was explored. In general, the level of uncertainty introduced by climate change is less than the inherent uncertainty in extreme flood estimation